The Commons View

Theatre Review - Dead Heavy Fantastic

2011-03-17T10:54:00.003Z

Dead Heavy Fantastic
Liverpool Everyman till Saturday 2nd April

8/10

It was only a matter of time before a Liverpool night out became a theatrical subject.

Robert Farquhar’s Dead Heavy Fantastic is premiering at the Everyman and is the story of divorced middle-aged postman Frank (Alan Stocks) who goes out on a first date with a girl he met online. Fully expecting to be back home before midnight Frank is pulled into one wild night out where he encounters his dates’ ex, stumbles into insurance fraud, gets mixed up with a hen night and experiences prostitutes, karaoke and drugs – that’s just the beginning. Inevitably before daylight he also finds himself and learns a lot along the way.

Alongside Stocks, the cast list is stuffed full of Liverpool talent; many of whom are more at home at the City’s Royal Court Theatre. Helen Carter, Stephen Fletcher and daughter of Drew, Jess Schofield all play some of the larger than life characters Frank meets. The Royal Court comparison is important because the audience, as loud and boisterous as the action, feel like they have walked right up the Mount Pleasant from that theatre.

The play itself is both funny and touching and has clearly seen many drafts and editing from the theatre’s Literary department since a version was first shown over a decade ago.

Director Matt Wilde returns to the theatre he directed another piece of new Liverpool writing in - Lost Monsters. The epic nature of that production remains here with some of the best video projections I have seen balanced with refined light of touch moments.

As Frank, Stocks is as likeable as you would hope and is a perfect foil to on-the-edge Con O’Neill as gangster Vince. Another Liverpool legend; O’Neill appears to be attempting a scouse DeNiro.

This is Frank’s story with Vince playing a sidekick role and the other characters can feel mere extras. Fletcher’s nervy solicitor misses the mark and the female characters are a little two dimensional.

It must be noted that with very strong swearing and farcical drug taking this isn’t a family show but neither ever feels glorified.

Comparisons with the Royal Court will be made but apart from a mis-judged joke about the Wirral none of the humour feels forced. The key difference between this and shows such as Brick Up… is that Farquhar clearly has a genuine affection for the story and characters and no one is the butt of the jokes.

Dead Heavy Fantastic is more than well worth a watch and when the lights go out on the apocalyptic final scene next to the airport in Speke the audience have had as much fun as any night out in Liverpool without leaving their seats.

D-Day for Liverpool

2011-03-02T09:30:00.002Z

Wednesday 2nd March 2011 - today Liverpool City Council meet as a whole to debate and vote on the Budget - a Budget that Deputy Council Leader Paul Brant has declared is the toughest for the city for decades or even since the war.

The proposals were launched a little over a week ago - you can read my thoughts on them here - Spotlight on Liverpool - now the time has come to vote but I think it is important to give a little bit of background to the process in between and my thoughts on it.

Last Friday on the 25th Feb the Council Cabinet met to vote on the Budget allowing it to progress to the Finance Select Committee that evening. They then discuss and vote allowing it to proceed to full Council tonight.

After the rhetoric from local and national Government on Liverpool's proposals, the anger they caused and the protests the weekend after they were announced the first thing to say about both meetings is that they were calm - relaxed even. Both from the Councillors who seemed resigned to the proposals and from the public who despite being allowed to both meetings and invited to speak at both were very quiet indeed - noone spoke at Cabinet and just two points on Liverpool Direct Limited were made at the Finance Select Committee.

On the point of the public it must be noted that this is likely to change tonight. Though they could speak at both meetings last week they were more discussions of procedure than the cuts themselves - it is tonight where they can really be heard and, of course, reported by the inevitable media gathering. In fact on her blog Cllr. Paula Keaveney claims that the Council are refusing to allow more than the usual 6 people/30 minute of public discussion tonight - a move the Lib Dem grouping will attempt to reverse by asking for an extension. Paula Keaveney - Let more people speak on budget. It matters! It is a shame these same people did not want to speak at the meetings last Friday too.

However on the point of the Councillors being calm on the cuts there is a point to raise again here - by attempting big tent politics Cllr. Anderson has, in my opinion, stifled the natural debate and discussion on the cuts proposals. It may have been for good intentions but at the Cabinet meeting both Cllr. Anderson and Cllr. Brant made a point of saying the party leaders coming together killed off any argument this budget was political - surely this was one large reason for that 'big tent'.

Cllr. Andrew Makinson for the Lib Dems in the Finance Select Committee meeting led the only real discussion on areas of the Budget asking about the removal of the Working Neighbourhoods Fund in one go. Cllr. Brant said the previous administration had been wrong to not predict that the national Govt. would withdraw thei funding for this and front-load their cuts. Cllr. Radford also claimed that this had been funded from a temporary fund within the Council and had it been funded from elsewhere within the Budget, a more permanent fund, in the first place the Council may not have had to take the tough decision.

On the Big Society and whether the National Govt. claimed desire to remove some CRB checks would save some cash Cllr. Brant was unsure but did point out that in an interview with TalkSport when the producers had wanted a contact to represent the Big Society they had been passed from Govt. department to Govt. department with noone admitting responsibility and therfore able to provide a contact. Cllr. Brant said it was not possible to rely on the changes to CRB therfore.

Cllr. Steve Radford of the Liberal Party did make the point raised on this blog that perhaps the Council could have been more upfront as to where the savings or cuts were going to be made - he was concerned about how deliverable they would be without giving people an initial indication. The point I have made is that the headline figures on cuts have been announced but no real decision apart from on a few childrens centres on what will actually be cut. Cllr. Brant said everyone had worked "astonishingly hard in a short space of time" given the funding from National Govt. was only confirmed on the 10th Feb. The Finance Director also pointed out that though they had announced quite a fe consultations on where to make cuts actually some of these were subject to statutory guidelines - although she was not specific as to which were and were not.

On consultation I have previusly discussed the YouChoose tool for the public to have a go at balancing the Budget - it was announced just 581 people had used this - the demographic was also skewed to younger people. I think the link had been shared via Facebook and Twitter - I doubt whether the responses could be taken as representative.

Queries were raised about the Pupil Premium and whether the Council would get more money than expected and about National Non Domestic (Business) rates and the concerns that National Govt. seemed to be indicating the national part of the that the Council gets could be cut.

Cllr. Makinson also raised a point about the reduction to the street cleaning budget saying his area seemed to be deteriorating. Cllr. Anderson quickly batted this down suggesting that it seemed only Lib Dem areas were being cleaned less well!

Finally the Chair Cllr. Paul Clein called for United Utilities to be consulted as the population of a city can be judged by the amount of sewage - they are directly proportional apparently - who knew?! With the Census coming up there was a chance the population would be calculated less than the actual amount of people and with a per person level of funding they needed all the people they could get!

All in all a fairly calm and relaxed day of meetings.

Today will almost certainly be different - the Lib Dem grouping have already suggested they will be asking for amendments on saving the four Children Centres amongst others. Save Children's centres say Liverpool Lib Dems. But the problem remains that with all the parties party to the cuts proposals any real discussion or call to amend will not be as powerful as it could have been.

It will be left to the public to shout the loudest - and they will - I shall be at the meeting later.

Kickoff is 5pm.

Spotlight on Liverpool

2011-02-21T09:00:00.005Z

Liverpool Council kickstarted their Budget review last week by announcing their proposals to make the £91m of savings they say they need to balance the City's books.

So what you might say? The national Government has had to make drastic announcements and every local council is going through a similar Budget process. Manchester has announced it will have to cut 2,000 jobs which is more than Liverpool. Even on the same day Liverpool announced their proposals Lancashire were finalising theirs. In a meeting that agreed even more cuts than Liverpool the police were called to County Hall to deal with the protesters - the first time that has happened in living memory.

Why then was the spotlight on Liverpool last week and at the weekend at a rally at St. George's Hall in Liverpool and will be again on Friday and next Tuesday when the Budget is debated and finalised?

Two main reasons.

One - historically the city has felt national government, and one female PM's government especially, has given Liverpool an unfair deal. An unfair deal which in the 80s almost brought the city to its knees. This belief manifested itself in a fear of the coalition cuts as soon as the coalition was formed. A TUC paper released during the Lib Dem conference in the city last year seemed to confirm this fear with the TUC arguing the North West and Liverpool would suffer disproportionately as a result of national budget reductions.

The local council have argued the same. Launching 'You Choose' a nationally developed budget calculator/simulator for Local Government that allows the public to make departmental cuts to balance the authority budget which will then inform the Council decision on cuts; Liverpool Council declared that the Government's local settlements saw the most deprived areas asked to shoulder the biggest burden. They even showed this in a very visual way with a graph declaring Liverpool to have the worst settlement in proportion to the deprivation it suffers.

Two - Liverpool has put itself very much in the spotlight when it comes to cuts by loudly withdrawing themselves as one of four pilot cities for David Cameron's pet project "The Big Society". Cameron had damaged the chances of giving community and volunteer groups more power, council leader Cllr. Anderson said, by government cuts. They couldn't afford "The Big Society".

So with the spotlight fully on them what did the Council announce were their proposals to make cuts and balance the Budget?

Well the summary document didn't really provide much - Council Tax frozen, more money for business and apprentice development and growth, an attempt to protect children's and adult care. So far no big shocks. The closure of four children centres (aka nurseries) was to be expected although not a done deal as a "consultation" is to begin. A big cut over two years to the libraries budget - so which are to close, will we have shorter opening hours, will staff be replaced by volunteers? Well none of the above as a three month consultation on how to deliver this cut is about to begin. In fact this was the main headline from the proposals - though the budget decisions may have been made in number terms the outcomes of those monetary changes were still to be decided or were vague at best. On leisure centres it was announced that opening hours would be reduced as well as a rather vague "changing levels of service".

In fact in almost every area the specifics were missing or were replaced with a consultation. The You Choose budget tool (which rather randomly stayed active for a few days after the proposals had been announced) seemed very much to be a sign of how the Council wanted the cuts to be viewed a decision made by all of us - or in words made famous by the Coalition "we are all in this together". Even the Unions were unhappy - though the proposals contained numbers staff were no clearer on whether their jobs were safe or not as big decisions hadn't been made.

To be fair on Culture spending there were some clear decisions, amongst others - no Lord Mayor's Parade. What was missing was the funding levels of local Arts Organisations so vital to the city in, and after, '08. It took statements from the organisations themselves, beginning with the Liverpool Philharmonic, to announce they had been asked to take 20% less from the Council.

There are questions for the Council to answer too on the capacity for protest or debate towards these proposals. It is not just the public who have been, or will be consulted; (although how significant that will be remains to be seen) the local political leaders were consulted too. Not just consulted in fact because the announcement of the proposals was made not just by Cllr. Anderson but his Lib Dem, Liberal and Green counterparts. Assuming most Councillors will choose not to publicly defy or question their leader that leaves very, very little political opposition to the cuts to debate or oppose them.

However in a Derren Brown style magic trick Cllr. Anderson appeared to solve this problem by emailing council staff encouraging them to attend a march and rally at which he would speak - against the cuts. So on Sunday afternoon Cllr. Anderson was cheered as he declared that the proposals he had overseen were not at all his doing but were the fault of the national government and David Cameron. "The fightback", he declared, "starts now". The irony of this position was not lost on some anarchists and far left attendees who heckled Anderson for being the architect of the cuts. Those on the right would agree he was the architect and would argue, as many at national government, have done that this was a political set of cuts. Whether that is true or not as the front page of the Liverpool Echo the day after the proposals shows it is not Cllr. Anderson who is losing out politically from the Council cuts.

But is that fair? Well some are calling on Cllr. Anderson to set an illegal budget - refuse to make the cuts and refuse to balance the books. The Council rightly say this is ridiculous. Someone else would make the cuts, they wouldn't have the cities interests at heart and we wouldn't have the authority any more to intervene.

The other argument is that the Council could better deliver cuts through efficiency savings and dipping into Council reserves.

On efficiency savings the Council has a point that not only have they made significant savings in this way but cutting the pay further of their Chief Executive, as Eric Pickles helpfully suggests, would not make a dent in the figure they need to achieve.

Andrew Stunnell has suggested some of the £88 million reserves the Council holds could be used. The Council response is that they ARE releasing £13m, that reserves can only be used once and that much of the reserves are earmarked. Deputy Council Leader Cllr. Brant said in City magazine from the Council delivered to every household that "the amounts are recommended by the District Auditor to prudently cover overspends on major projects, or are held on behalf of schools". Yet there are questions to be asked on reserves. Cllr. Brant is misleading the public when it comes to some of the reserves being earmarked for schools - as the Council's own document below shows the £88 million EXCLUDES the Schools Balances - taking those into account the reserves currently total £105 million. Secondly although the pot called 'Corporate Reserves for Specific Initiatives' is more or less emptied the amount removed from the largest pot 'Reserves for the management of risks' is only just more than the amount that was added to this pot in the last financial year. Surely the financial crisis is an unplanned for risk that this cash could be used to help with? Finally although £14 million is being taken out in the first of the two financial years these proposals cover in the second year a million will be ADDED back into the risks pot and no reserves will be used - in fact in March 2013 the reserves will be higher than in March 2012. Whilst use of reserves alone cannot cover the cuts and the Council cannot bankrupt themselves there are questions to be asked as to why more isn't being done in this area.

Finally - the Government accused Liverpool's withdrawal from 'The Big Society' on political motives, the Council said it was due to lack of money. A detailed look at the Council proposals on Libraries shows the Council still backs it:

"The consultation will include offering local communities the chance to take over the running of facilities, wholly or part time. The Council would prefer to foster co-operative organisations (of staff, service users or residents) to maintain service provision, however it will also work with the private sector where appropriate to maintain provision."

Sounds like 'The Big Society' to me - so was the withdrawal political after all?

On Friday the Cabinet and Financial Select Committee meet to discuss the proposals and make their recomendations to the full Council on the 2nd March - I will be at all three meetings live tweeting and blogging - the spotlight till then and beyond will remain on Liverpool.

"The End of the Party"...but which one?!

2010-05-08T16:34:00.002+01:00

So the votes have been counted and independently verified and I can now reveal ... well not a lot can be revealed at all!

A Hung Parliament we have and don't the broadcasters love it?

As well as no result in keeping with the TV Reality Show voting analogy no party has been "voted off" yet.

Not as good a night as expected for the Conservatives but they are no longer electoral failures and could still form a Government. Poor show for the Lib Dems but they appear to remain kingmakers, awful show for Labour but they are still on the scene and even more surprising so is Brown. And if there is any future for Labour it would need the support of just about everyone else in the Commons bar the Ulster Unionists. But my opinion is that if Clegg doesn't play this right one party could suffer and the title of Andrew Rawnsley's latest tome could come true for the Lib Dems.

If Clegg does a deal with the Conservatives minus PR he can guarantee many swing voters and tactical voters who supported him this time and those on the progressive left in the party will at best be unhappy and at worst will refuse to vote LD next time or even ever again. For many it is a betrayal. Simple as. For Labour it would mean a term as opposition, a chance to rebuild and crucially they would have clear non-blue water between themselves and LD - "we are the progressive, non-Tory party and we will never get into bed with a party that sides with fascists in Europe" - strong rhetoric but not untrue and it will work. For the Conservatives a deal might be unpalatable to the grassroots but they would get it through - why? Because they know it would be just a short-term measure.

There are reports this morning that Clegg had a conversation on the phone with a less than helpful PM and the briefing from the LD that the Cons are much easier to deal with in personal terms. Well of course they are! Brown isn't very personable at the best of times, he isn't a big fan of the LDs at the best of times and guess what he isn't exactly having the best of times. Brown has most to lose from this process and the Tories NOT the LDs who have most to gain - thats why there being so nice.

It is in the DNA of every Conservative to win, win big and govern strong - thats why the grassroots are so unhappy and there are anti-Cameron rumblings. But don't be fooled Cameron is acting on his DNA - he is making moves to make sure they win big and govern strong ... soon. The LDs should beware the 'easy to deal with' exterior.

If the Tories get a deal whenever it falls apart and an election is called, be it days weeks or months, they will have acted in the national interest winning them votes. They will have swallowed their pride and proven they aren't nasty winning them votes. Turnout will drop winning them votes. LD voters as earlier mentioned will desert them and that will only help the Tories too.

Now all the other outcomes and possibilities are fascinating and there are benefits to deals with the Conservatives in terms of being taken seriously and not just hell bent on PR etc. but in the long term interests of the party the LDs can not afford to do it.

Like every party they are split - but it is the Orange Book LDs of David Laws and Vince Cable who are leading negotiations - Chris Huhne and the others responsible for it's rival publication Reinventing the State may well balk (publicly) at a deal with the Tories - that public balk would be damaging.

So don't be fooled PR is a bit of a smokescreen although important and divisive - this is about power and electoral ability - a deal with the Tories would guarantee that for them in the long-run and damage it for the Lib Dems immediately even with Cabinet posts.

One to watch!

2010-05-06T18:23:00.000+01:00

There is one seat that will be declared quite quietly tonight, at a guess before the full outcome is known but not early enough to be noticed or commented on. But should the Tories form a government it's holder may well expect a job offer from Cameron.

Chichester isn't at all interesting. I was born there so I can say that about the West Sussex city itself which is beautiful if quiet and uneventful. But when I say it isn't interesting I mean politically. It is a safe Conservative seat but not one with a huge, un-assailable majority or a high profile MP. Since it's creation as a seat Labour have never won there and you have to go back to the days of annual elections to find the one year in history where it had anything other that a Tory - a Liberal MP - special prize if you get the year.
The Lib Dems may do well there tonight, they have a great candidate but the incumbent will win and he is one to watch.

Andrew Tyrie is not your typical Conservative - he was once a supporter of the Euro and led Ken Clarke's leadership bid in 2001. Where he does fit the Tory bill is in his Oxbridge education - he is very clever with a specialism in economics. In fact since being elected in '97 Tyrie has had a spell as a shadow treasury spokesman but he stood aside to create and chair a Parliamentary group investigating the UKs involvement in extraordinary rendition - causing the Govt. to answer some tricky questions. He has also impressed on the Treasury Select Committee where he cross-examined banks and Treasury figures during the recession forcing some illuminating answers and winning himself his second Spectator Award for Backbencher of the Year. He has also been instrumental with Sir George Young in drawing up ideas for reform of parliament - he has long been a campaigner for reform of the Lords and introduced the bill that saw the Commons vote on a range of possible options to change the upper house - in the end none got majority support. Before parliament Tyrie was amongst other jobs an advisor to various Conservative Treasury ministers and although not your usual Tory in terms of some liberal views he is a party man and I would expect him to be rewarded with a good job should Cameron become PM - most people won't have heard of him or Chichester - now you will have!

Manchester Withington - Constituency Profile

2010-05-06T15:53:00.002+01:00

So in just a matter of hours the polls will close and the votes will be counted!

We will move from what seemed like a lifetime of pre-match build-up to the long-awaited match itself and the all-important post-match analysis!

People keep saying that this is the most exciting election for a generation, there is talk of hung parliaments, minority governments, negotiations, pacts, coalitions and the distinct possibility of a new PM. But why the election is really so exciting is not just the possible outcomes of the vote, some of which won't have occured before in my lifetime, what makes it so exciting is what makes all elections so - those moments of drama and unforseen or unimagined events and tonight one of the only things we can say for certain is those will be in abundance.

Tonight I will be at Manchester Town Hall watching the votes come in for seats across the city but my eyes and many others will be on one result - Manchester Withington.

There are two reasons - one because it is so close, it's a knife-edge Lib Dem marginal with Labour in 2nd, but also because in 2005 it provided one of those unforseen moments of drama.

If anyone is playing election night bingo then watch out for mention of 1974 - that's the last time there was a hung parliament. Back in 1974 both elections saw a Conservative MP for Withington. But in 1987 it fell to Labour and Keith Bradley who in his time in parliament served as a Deputy Chief Whip.

It remained a fairly safe Labour seat - in 2001 Bradley gained over 50% of the vote and a majority of well over 11,000.

So when in 2005 the seat, number 147 on the target list for the Lib Dems, fell to the third party it was an exceptional result.

The swing was 17.3% - the third largest in that election.

So tonight all eyes will be on Withington - can the Lib Dems hold it or even increase their majority with 'Cleggmania' not showing signs of totally dying away?

At first glance with a stronger Lib Dem showing you might think it was a simple hold for the party but look at why they might have won in 2005 and it might not be as straight-forward.

Withington has a large number of student voters - owner occupation is less than 50% with many in the rented sector instead - in 2005 the Lib Dems benefited hugely from the student vote with their stance on top up fees that Bradley had supported - can it count on it as much this time? Perhaps not and in Withington many of those students that got John Leech, the MP, elected literally don't have a vote anymore as they will have moved on.

Plus the anti-war stance of the Lib Dems in 2005 will not be as much of a benefit this time around.

What about more local issues? Well there was a backlash against the removal of Bradley and the question of whether the Labour vote will return this time with more at stake for the party looms large. The Christie Hospital in the constituency will be an issue for some voters - in 2005 Leech claimed some services there were under threat, the issue continued after the election. Labour always maintained there was never any threat to services and the political row was significant locally with hospital executives weighing in and a Lib Dem councillor defecting to Labour in 2006. Just weeks before the election began Gordon Brown paid a visit to the hospital and the electoral impact of this row will only fully be discovered later.

Since 2005 Keith Bradley has become Baron Bradley of Withington and is also a non-executive Director of Christies hospital.

His replacement as the Labour candidate for the constituency is Lucy Powell and she has been supported in her campaign to re-take Withington by no other than Eddie Izzard as well as the PM, Mandleson, Blunkett, both Milliband brothers and Lord Adonis.

Despite a national swing from Lab-Cons in 2005 the Tory candidate lost 5% of the vote share and won't compete tonight.

One aspect that could affect the Lib Dem vote is Yasmin Zalzala - she was the Lib Dem candidate back in 2001 but left the party and claimed at the time she was hounded out. She stood as an independent in 2005 but didn't manage 1% of the vote - she is however standing again this time and may benefit from a raised profile - it remains to be seen.

It is number 17 on the Labour list of targets and with less than 1,000 votes in it last time it could well provide just one part of the drama tonight will almost certainly bring.

PS - Interestingly although they have been fighting each other hard in the campaign both Leech and Powell are supporters of Man City - only one can avenge their team's defeat at the hands of Spurs though!

Go Fourth Kicks Off!

2009-04-30T23:23:00.004+01:00

Go Fourth is the name for the John Prescott led campaign to get Labour an historic fourth term. It launches tomorrow as the 'Prescott Express' battle bus tour begins here in Liverpool.

He is planning to visit 12 towns across the country before Bank Holiday Monday and tomorrow he will be speaking with Ed Milliband in a talk chaired by famous Labour Party supporter Eddie Izzard! Exciting you may say?! Indeed and not only that but the former Deputy PM has also enteredt the 21st century and will be blogging, vlogging and tweeting his trip. You can even follow the bus on Google Maps on the Go Fourth site.

Just to show how serious he is John has recruited old enemy Alistair Campbell to the cause and he has written on his site about the endeavour and also advertised it on Twitter! Is this a last ditch attempt to save the party from Electoral defeat?! Or perhaps a start to campigning to be the next Labour Leader?! Who knows but tomorrows event is a sell-out! Luckily I shall be there with a blog report and pictures to follow. You can also follow the event live on my Twitter feed - here! Also undoubtedly at Eddie Izzard's Twitter and John Prescott's - come on Ed Milliband - join the revolution!

Roll on 'Vote 2010' - a fascinating election awaits!

2009-04-30T22:54:00.004+01:00

Firstly apologies are in order, no blog posts since that momentous November evening when Obama made political history. My excuse? I am now in full-time employment for the theatre I have worked at for several years in Liverpool as a Communications Officer helping maintain the relationship between the press and theatres.

But enough about me! In my absence there have been a number of fascinating political developments, rather than dwell on those I think it is important to put into context the last few weeks in Britain and how the various developments leave the parties as an election fast approaches.

One cannot overestimate the size of the task facing David Cameron's "party of change", the Conservatives. To win they will need to have a massive swing of the vote share as well as make considerable gains in a number of seats in the country. Tactically they will need to arguably be stronger than the Labour campaign leading up to 1997. I still believe this is in thought and on reflection of the Polls Cameron's election to win but realistically and on reflection of the electoral situation Brown's to lose.

Yet Brown has had a major setback in the last few weeks, not expenses u-turns, not a Lumley led Gurkha Commons defeat, not even the resignation of former MPs but the horrific email smears scandal. This may have been moved of the agenda by Swine Flu but come the countdown to polling day it will rear its ugly head.

Brown is not known to be a man who is calm or at peace - just ask those at the recieving end of his stationary throwing arm! On a more serious note - accusations of dodgy tactics - particularly against the Blair cohorts - have dogged Gordon along with accusations of negative briefing and desperate, often poor, attempts to 'spin'. Even Brown's closest allies would admit not all these accusations are far from the truth. So it will prove almost impossible for Brown to entirely distance himself from the affair. In fact his links to Draper et al mean he was very much a part of what has gone on.

However the incident goes deeper than this. It goes to the heart of Brown's Government and it's lack of control. Blair in his end days may have found it hard to exert control of his party or to always have some positive spin on the negative but he and his team to the last day were setting the news agenda and if they made mistakes they very rarely made them a second timm.

The email row showed a total failure on Brown's part to do the same. There was a total lack of agenda setting that allowed this story to run and run over Easter. The signs were there early on from our friend Guido and they were not picked up on. This story could have been killed so much quicker. It is this delay and the proof that Brown finds it hard to stay calm and in control that may set in people mind to the extent that come polling day people vote for Cameron's message of 'change' no matter how true or realistic it might be.

However it is not just electorally that all is not over for Brown. The polls are against him but are mixed at best. Gains for Cameron are not matched in all polling data and the size of his lead is not consistent across the polls. The Commons debates today on expenses showed that Cameron is not totally on top of the situation. The Tories have not come out of today well, this and being forced on the backfoot by Darling's Budget over income tax has shown weaknesses for the Conservatives. Weaknesses that arguably Blair at this time in 1997 was not showing, weaknesses that could strengthen basic anti-Conservative ideas in peoples minds - that they are not ready for Government and that they havenot changed and still protect the rich.

All in all the next few weeks and months will be truly intriguing - I hope to provide insight and thought to accompany the events here at The Commons View.

US 08 Results - LIVE

2008-11-04T23:00:00.047Z

Well the time has come - as the first states polls close the Election of the century (?!) draws to a close and we begin to see what the future for America will hold.

Will it be a landslide, will there be voting irregularities, will the turnout and early voting be decisive, will the new President face a Senate and House of Representatives of his own party and will as my earlier post hinted gay marriage be outlawed again in California?

Its from here we find out - I look forward to watching the news coverage, seeing the results come in and trawling the millions of internet sites to make my views and comments but this blog is all about you - at the bottom of this or any other post you can click comments at any time and add your own comment to the debate - I promise I will respond to anyones thoughts during the night so here we go!

23:13 The BBC are reporting the twitter of 'jkozuch' who has just recieved a Republican robocall claiming links between Obama and Castro - could this motivate last minute undecided voters who are "scared" of Obama?

23:18 BBC Newsnight and discussion that McCain, like Prince Charles couldn't marry the woman he wanted too - Democrat Joe Lieberman and instead Sarah Palin was forced upon him. Had Clinton won would Lieberman been a more plausible choice and would McCain have come closer?

23:22 How long will we all last? The results and tedious conversation I can manage but Jeremy Vine and his bloody graphics?! I hope he falls down those stairs at some point! Tune in to CNN if you want to see graphics done well!

23:49 Robert has defended Mr Vine and his morphing map and in Culpeper you can buy a McCain Mocha - I will be sticking to my Baileys coffees thankyou! However he is correct - some of the big states close in a few minutes - watch on for Indiana and Virginia!

00:03 The first states have been called - no big surprises that McCain takes Kentucky and Obama Vermont but importantly McCain is in the lead - for how long?

00:08 Is Obama black, is he green (no experience) or is he mixed race? Whats your opinion? Does his colour matter?

00:13 Confused as to why states are being 'called' so early and called by news networks? this article explains it all. Also on this Fox News called Vermont for Obama which is why the BBC and everyone else has called it when the Vermont votes actually counted did not even number 5%.

00:24 With 11% of precints reporting in Indiana CNN are giving McCain the advantage - not a body blow for Obama if counting continues in the same vein but a landslide may be out of the question and my predictions may well be out the window.

00:32 Lauryn has asked whether Obama, if he wins, will be working with a Democrat House (Senate and House of Representatives). Well with the very few results we have so far and the projected vote share Obama will have a majority of Senators and Congressmen working with him which will be important if Obama wants to bring in big changes. However Obama if elected will have been elected on that one word 'change' and members of both houses and both parties will find it difficult to vote against that message. Its also worth bearing in mind that the economy has controlled this election - as always stupid - and whoever wins will also expect members of both houses to work with them to sort those economic issues.

00:42 Sarah Palin has accused the mass media of being sexist and masculine against her as the VP pick - wrongly accusing her of being stupid and the wrong choice. Watching 5 men on the BBC tonight you could easily believe it!

00:50 Robert has commented that race almost defines this election - what do we think of that? My belief is if he wins race will be a short term definition of the election however if he loses (as my twitter text suggested last week) race will be THE definition and we will not see a black candidate for a long time. Whether race really is a factor is a fact to be debated however what is undeniable is that whatever the result it will be a while before Luther King's dream that race is almost invisible comes true.

00:57 A not uncommon view among women, especially more liberal women it must be said, that it isn't sexist to be anti-Palin but the Alaskan Governor is in fact not a good advert for women at all. Whilst I personally have a soft spot for Clinton also I must say that neither women have really given women polticians a good name in the fact that any other women wanting to run will find it difficult to escape the image of either woman.

01:00 Big news now - as I predicted Pennsylvania has stayed Democrat and it has been called early suggesting a large victory for Obama. Also as I made my predictions earlier I said that there would be a huge headache for the Republicans if they didnt win this state. Is it over? No but any early optimism for the GOP camp must be dashed.

01:07 Good question from Rob - how am I deciding what to blog and what to follow here tonight? Well I am watching the BBC coverage whilst watching how my blog and others are going to choose what are the important issues to comment on. Results wise I am on the Real Clear Politics Website as well as CNN, Fox and CBS on their interactive maps - there you can not just see the state being called but you can 'hover' over each state and watch how the counting is going which is how I discovered the very early Indiana voting. For example after almost 20% of these votes CBS and CNN are saying that Florida is voting by nearly 55% for Obama. This would be game over for the Republicans.

01:14 Rob asks will this get embarassing for McCain? My simple answer would be yes it already is by not gaining Pennsylvania. This was the huge focus of the McCain campaign even in closing days of the election and last Wednesday in my Blog on the confusion over key states I talked about why on earth Pennsylvania was his focus? I wrote that "in that "key state" Pennsylvania RCP give Obama an average lead of +11% with one recent poll giving Obama a surely unassailable lead of 14%." In the autopsy of this defeat the strange campaigning in this state will be questioned and an embarassment for McCain without a doubt.

01:21 Fox News played a large part in the 2000 election in Florida in particular. Would they call states for McCain that he was not winning? I think not actually especially post-2000 but Lauryn has made a point that currently they are saying McCain is winning that state by 53-46% however this is with less than 1% of votes. CNN have it 53-47% for Obama and this is with 30% of precints. Fox News may well be holding back from showing some of the counts in order to avoid a 2000 situation or maybe they are worried that it is going Democrat. UPDATE: As I write that Fox News are now calling the votes counted so far for Florida.

01:28 There were jitters for me earlier when the first results came in as I worried that my predictions were all over the place but I think we are now looking at a Obama landslide. Could Georgia come close - that could really heal racial tensions in the USA. I also have a feeling we should watch McCain's home state of Arizona - he should win but turnout has been relatively low - will the state be a victim of apathy due to an idea of a foregone conclusion? In terms of the Senate race it is now clear that the Democrats will have control as they are now just 5 seats away from control according to CNN. However more importantly the Republicans will be without some of the names and personalities they need too rebuild. Tides are changing.

01:38 I am afraid to say change doesnt look positive - it looks like Florida are voting overwhlmingly for a ban on Gay Marriage. Worth noting that neither Democrat candidates for the ultimate nomination believe marriage should be between two men or two women.

01:55 Could this election really change the American political situation forever? Perhaps - only the night will tell - however it looks possible THE bellweather state Missouri could be going for McCain against the flow of results and the way it appears to be going. This state has always gone for the winner - this election may change that little bit of history at least.

02:00 Can you guess this is David Dimbleby's last US Election? How grumpy - the USA appear not to be able to organise an election, no technology works, its so annoying when results don't come in on the hour according to the Grumpy Old Man. He also appears to have invented a new state of North Hampsire - anyone else heard of it? I don't mind having the job if Mr Dimbleby is moving on?

02:08 If it wasn't so exciting we could all go to bed! The Democrats are in control of the Senate and they are well on their way to the White House now. Time for a coffee break I feel!

02:26 The coffee break proves eventful as the news we had already predicted proves true - Ohio is the first 'take' for Obama and the Senate is definitely in control of the Democrats.

02:27 Responding to a few comments - I think McCain was always destined to lose however that doesn't mean he could have done nothing to change the destiny. Palin was an awful VP choice - it can be proved because of numerous polls how disruptive she was to key state votes. She was possibly most awful because she was not McCain's pick - she was forced upon him. As the reasons become clear for the loss McCains dithering on the economy and his VP choice will be the key reasons. A strong Democrat campaign and 'dubya' can not be the only reasons for loss no matter how keen the Republicans would be for that to be true. You have to love a bit of arguing in the studio - apart from Dimbleby's grumpiness and Vine's graphics going wrong its a bit of excitement! Georgia was probably a state too far but Arizona still needs to be watched as I predicted earlier. As for a gay president - I think not - thats more likely in this country wheras a black PM seems incredibly unlikely.

02:37 As for the gap toothed wonder Ms Rice who visited this fair city (Liverpool UK) in her tenure as Secretary of State she is still in her job in the Bush administration and barring problems will remain there till January. She will be tarred negatively with the Bush brush much more so than the man whose job she took Colin Powell. Ironically this means she is unlikely to be able to run for the Republican nomination (although don't rule it out) even though she would love too and Colin Powell was this time in a perfect position to run on the GOP ticket but decided it was too unsafe for his family.

02:44 Another Ruddick predicted 'take' for Obama New Mexico has come in and I would suggest that this will mean Nevada - just over from that state and whose polls close at 3 will also fall. Simon Schama appears to be pushing his love for Obama a little too far I feel. Loved the comment from the technologically unlucky host Dimbleby that a poor historian comments before results! As for the 'redneck states' yes they do appear to be falling into line however lets be honest California won't be going for McCain in the same respect and in these so called 'redneck' states the vote is closer than ever before and more importantly people previously who felt without a voice have spoken.

02:59 More polls to close and I feel we are going to get a lot closer to a victory now. Dimbleby just cant stand this American system can he?

03:10 Back to the Senate race which has been a little bit forgotten in the last few results - with some results called and some beginning to report I think Obama will take around 57-59 seats in the Senate so they wont get the 60 seats that make them fillibuster proof which means they would be able to get most measures through without problems. However their 57-59 seats will prove very useful for the 44th President.

03:16 Rajesh Mirchandani gets a dressing down from a local Colaradian politician and John Bolton in the studio. Unfair? Maybe but he needs to know his facts really although John Bolton definitley has a bee in his bonnet tonight!

03:30 So half an hour to go until California adds their 55 to Obama's total leaving him with just 8 electoral college votes to pick up if the predictions are correct at the moment. May I say a huge thank you to Lauren, Rob and the mysterious Mr Dimbleby for helping make tonight a success - I have enjoyed every moment so far - spread the word and we can do a liveblog again soon and build this blog from today! I agree that Nick Robinson is no Andrew Marr however he has taken poltical blogging to a new level - I might not be writing this without him! I do not think this is the end for the Republican Party - far from it. This may not be a landslide even by the end of the night and both parties have recovered from landslides in the past. When I studied A-levels there were certain criteria to become President. One was to be a white male so thats out the window but another was to be either the official Republican or Democrat nominee and I think that will always be the case. However Mr Dimbleby has a point - one who knows what Obama will do once in the Oval Office and second if he is a success then come 2016 perhaps perceptions of race will be changed in the USA forever?

03:58 Obama is about to become the 44th President of the USA

04:02 Maybe its been so widely anticipated this moment is easily understated. This is a momentous moment - could this only happen in the USA? Well thats for others to decide but it HAS happened in the USA and what a place for it to happen. A history realy to feel guilty about of slavery, segregation and attacks has been absolved and for the USA and the world nothing will really be the same again.

04:16 We have just recorded our first Commons View video so what a fantastic moment however as we were doing so Colorado fell to Obama - fantastic news for the Democrats but alas it was one state I felt was out of reach in my predictions earlier. Oh well you can't win them all. Talking of which McCain is on stage conceding and there are certain people booing the sound of the word Obama - those are not images to be proud of at all. Lets hope our commenter is correct in that 2016 or maybe even 2012 perceptions will have been totally changed.

04:33 McCain has conceded in a very gracious speech, the crowd was in part disgraceful. McCain must accept some blame for the defeat but I must say that I am unsure whether the McCain we saw tonight was really any different to the man in the long campaign. However it is true that the real McCain has been lost in the last few weeks and months. I don't believe he was the Republicans only choice, Bush was not helpful and neither was Cheney, he dithered on the economy, too many people pulled him in too many directions esp over his VP pick and in the end he was an experience candidate in a change election. Lets hope those boos are never heard ever again.

04:47 A cringe inducing interview on the BBC right now so lets turn to the election of a Nixon but he is a Democrat and the new Missouri Governor - its changing hands tonight from the Republican - the main news in the Governor races.

04:59 Obama is speaking after taking to the stage with the new first family. He really is 'our' President surely as the whole world embraces this one man's unique message of change. Earlier today we discussed the 'gay' issue in American poltics. It looks like those states will outlaw gay maariage and a gay President seems unlikely but as Oprah looks on Obama says this is a victory for everyone 'gay or straight' its only a small advance but just his readiness to address homosexuals shows how much the country has changed.

05:24 The night appears to be coming to an end and what a historic night it has been so far. With 5 states left to declare Obama will win by a big, big amount and what an inspirational speech he made to the crowds at Chicago. Maybe we exaggerate to say that tonight could only have happened in the USA but the speech and its "yes we can" message is totally American. The Senate and House will remain in Democrat control if not stronger although the latest news seems that the incumbent Congressmen in Texas has been beaten by a Republican. So some good news for the GOP party on a poor night. A new Democrat Governor in Missouri as earlier reported and a sad ban on gay marriage in Arizona and almost certainly in Florida and probably California also.

On a more personal note whilst I hate to say I told you so I appear to be just 5 electoral college votes and 3 states away from the actual result in my earlier prediction - no prize for me and I didn't make a bet so money lost also!

05:55 Well 5 minutes before advertised but we have deserved it I think its time for a little sleep! What a night - will sum it all up if I can tomorrow! Thanks for sharing it with me!

For what its worth.....

2008-11-04T21:56:00.002Z

..........the whole world and his wife are making their predictions for tonights result but with an hour to go here are my thoughts!

In previous posts I have not hid my belief that various circumstances over the last number of weeks suggest an Obama landslide. Although we could all be very wrong tomorrow if 1980 occurs again when Reagan won by a landslide despite trailing Carter by 10 points!

However I think Obamas poll lead in certain states as well as national circumstances and voting effects as well as the situation in some of those key states and most importantly turnout means that we are about to see numerous states fall from the Republicans.

So in my Democrat path to the White House I see Obama elected on a landslide gathering 366 electoral college votes to McCain's 172.

In this road to the White House Obama would win several states (listed in the order the states will be called tonight):

Indiana (Worth 11 electoral college votes)
Virginia (13)
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
Missouri (11)
North Carolina (15)
New Mexico (5)
Iowa (7)
and finally in my prediction Nevada (5)

If we are right in suggesting Obama could be heading for a big, big win then Colorado (9) could also fall and the first point we realise our Obama landslide predictions are wrong is if Indiana or Virginia are too close too call or not won by the Democrats or Pennsylvania (21) falls to McCain!

So thats the prediction - not long to go till we know!

Not just Obama, Not just Change for the better

2008-11-04T20:44:00.002Z

With just a few hours to go till polls close in the East of the USA we really are in unchartered territory - if you wont be staying up to keep up to date with my liveblog you will wake up tommorrow with either the first African American to be victorious in a race for President or the first woman victorious in the race for VP. Either way positive change for the USA and the world surely however it is easy to get wrapped up in the Presidential race and forget American ballots are far bigger and people will be voting in all sorts of propositions.

In fact in Florida and California in Proposition 2 and Proposition 8 respectively people will be voting to ensure marriage remains only lawful between a man and a woman. In California this would reverse the current situation and is so close to being passed that in California same sex couples are rushing to get married. Both camps have raised over $35million for their campaign!

This would be a backward step for America and possibly prove that no matter who becomes the next President America will remain a place of great discrepancies and a place where the federal system means certain inhabitants of certain states live a very different live to their fellow Americans in other states.

24 hours!

2008-11-03T22:35:00.003Z

Wow so the time is nearly upon us, in just 24 hours the first polls will close and we will begin to see the results of four years of positioning, posturing and campaigning!

A personally very exciting time as this blog comes into its own with a live blog of my opinions and analysis from the internet but also a globally exciting event as the 'free world' awaits a new leader!

Exciting yes but as Winter draws in here in the UK it has been a pretty tiring experience hasn't it?! this fantastic piece from that great personality on the BBC Matt Frei is spot on. "It is time to curl up under a blanket, hug a hot water bottle and reflect on what has happened and what may happen."

So just one last push for the candidates - the last ditch campaigning across those 'key' states, one last push for observers as we predict and respond to the results but its definitely been a long and arduous process!

And for the record from the comfort of my hot water bottle and Baileys coffee what do I think may happen?

Well there has been great talk of the Bradley effect where by, due to race, the polls are inaccurate and a lead for a black candidate is reduced when votes are actually cast. In my opinion this is entirely misplaced - never mind the fact the most recent polls put Obama much further ahead and with much more percentage points to lose than any Bradley effect predicts a candidate could lose. I believe if there is any discrepancy in the polls it is to the opposite effect - McCain is considered the natural choice for so many voters but he is a risk and is unpoular as many undecided people enter the booths this risk and the wave of change in the USA will be a factor - Democrats may be worried but unless the polls are entirely wrong Obama could well be heading for a big landslide.

What is the key??!

2008-10-29T23:58:00.002Z

Six days to go and the US Election race is fascinating and becoming more so as the days go by. As most of America tunes in to Obama's bumper ad instead of the footie analysts worldwide are attempting tp predict the result and what could change in the next few days as the candidates make their closing remarks and final pushes for votes.

But for the bystander this analysis and prediction can all be a bit confusing. Anyone watching the BBC News at 6 this evening will have seen Justin Webb in North Carolina saying this was THE state the candidates needed to win and the one to watch. In fact you can watch that report here

But at the smae time news organisations around the world are reporting the candidates last ditch attempts in Pennsylvania. Sarah Palin told a rally that "It is going to come down to the wire here.". Obama's team are worried that complacency could lose them a state that has been Democrat since 1988. Its certainly true that McCain thinks the 21 Electoral College votes up for grabs are more worth fighting for than in Missouri where he famously pulled out campaign money.

Yet according to the Polling site Real Clear Politics the last Missouri poll had McCain leading by two points and the RCP average of the latest polls shows only a lead for Obama of 0.2%. Conversely in that "key state" Pennsylvania RCP give Obama an average lead of +11% with one recent poll giving Obama a surely unassailable lead of 14%.

Most worryingly for McCain is 'news' that the Republican party think he could lose his. home state of Arizona Yet publically the team are also saying he will surprise the critics with a late finish and none of these key states, never mind the Grand Canyon state, are out of reach.

So why the discrepancies and why the confusion?

Well the answer is of course that various polling needs more heavy analysis than simple plus and minus for either man and the different polling organisations have different methods to test the public mood. Beyond that each state has various different ares and the situation across the USA is a lot more mixed and confused so that no amount of analysis can provide a totally clear picture.

So the candidates continue to focus their money and campaigning and the analysts continue to tell us which states to watch out for, which are key but the truth is we won't really know until the exit polls after the voting on Tuesday - I will be live blogging all the results coming in and the states being called right here!

Perfect timing?

2008-10-28T23:35:00.002Z

You couldn't really pick a more influential juncture in world politics to start documenting your response's to events and provide analyisis than this moment and this day. So I really do feel pretty lucky that this is the first of many postings to this new blog.

But why exactly is today such a momentous day?

Well of course the astute among you will realise it is just 7 days to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November 2008, a US Election and an election most pundits believe is more important than so many others. For the first time in 80 years neither the incumbent VP or President is running in the general election though that fascinating fact has rather been overshadowed now it is definite the USA will elect either the first African-American President or first female Vice-President. It is also an election which will be watched around the world more widely than any other as we all look to see who will shape the years post-Bush Junior. Yet these are only the headlines for the reasons why today being just 7 days to the US election is so important.

For many the campaign in America is over, some have already physically ended the process by casting their vote (overseas US citizens in particular have long voted), yet also the majority of the fundraising has occured, the televised debates have been picked, barring disasters both teams have their President and VP picks finalised after the process began almost four years ago and some even think the election is a foregone conclusion. Yet in fact today and the next seven days are really the most crucial in the whole campaign. It is in the next week we will only really begin to know the answers to the crucial questions this election will answer.

As both camps change their tactics at the last minute to what extent will the legacy of George W Bush be decided? Because although those who claimed Iraq would define Blair do have a point it is the manner of his 'removal' from office and the near-farcical events that have followed that have really defined how we view the man and therfore the legacy. In the case of Bush questions remain as to how widely he will be condemned - a disatrous night for the embattered Ted Stevens and other GOP Senators at risk will bring bilateral denunciation for his terms in office. However a better night for Republicans or even the best possible outcome could in time heal the damage.

It is only in the next seven days that we will really see the candidates tested under pressure with the Oval Office in sight how will Palin react - will she keep adapting for the McCain camp now she has started wearing jeans instead of the derided designer suits or will she break away and plan for 2012 or a celebrity career? Will Obama return to the preaching campaigning and 'bigger picture/change the world' arguments that he has occasionaly slipped into?

And from today onwards we will finally know how racist the USA really is today - will those who say in polls that Obama is for them abandon that position when they enter the booths due to the colour of his skin just as in 1992 the high Labour polling was destroyed by the Labour economic record? The American election is about much more than race but it is chirlish to say it is not of great interest to America and the world. As this article suggests the next seven days from Pennsylvania to Missouri could give us a scenario not seen since the days of ancient Egypt!

But its not just because of the amount of time to the US election that today is so important. In all the fuss over Gordon Brown weighing into the Manuel and Russell Brand row a fascinating poll has gone unnoticed in todays Daily Telegraph there was news that in the last two months the Tories lead here in the UK has been cut by eleven points. Pollsters worldwide are busy doing the maths into the possible tightening of the polls over the water but here in the UK I predict that the next few months will see the polls come closer as house prices continue to fall with the 'bottom' of the recession we seem to be in not quite reached and a new President that despite campaigning on change will be forced to change very little. In reality our world is facing troubled times and radical decisions will be unlikely, even unwise, and this sentiment will rub off on the global public including here in the UK and Brown's approval ratings will see a natural rise.

Thats not to say the election here is a foregone conclusion, far from it, but that in hard times Cameron will face problems getting his message through. Does that make for a dull future? Not at all, politics is so fascinating because of challenges and unanswered questions and of course Macmillan's "Events dear boy, events". Today's UK poll news and the campaign news in the USA today and in the next week mean there really could be such a thing as perfect timing for my first blog posting!