"The End of the Party"...but which one?!

So the votes have been counted and independently verified and I can now reveal ... well not a lot can be revealed at all!

A Hung Parliament we have and don't the broadcasters love it?

As well as no result in keeping with the TV Reality Show voting analogy no party has been "voted off" yet.

Not as good a night as expected for the Conservatives but they are no longer electoral failures and could still form a Government. Poor show for the Lib Dems but they appear to remain kingmakers, awful show for Labour but they are still on the scene and even more surprising so is Brown. And if there is any future for Labour it would need the support of just about everyone else in the Commons bar the Ulster Unionists. But my opinion is that if Clegg doesn't play this right one party could suffer and the title of Andrew Rawnsley's latest tome could come true for the Lib Dems.

If Clegg does a deal with the Conservatives minus PR he can guarantee many swing voters and tactical voters who supported him this time and those on the progressive left in the party will at best be unhappy and at worst will refuse to vote LD next time or even ever again. For many it is a betrayal. Simple as. For Labour it would mean a term as opposition, a chance to rebuild and crucially they would have clear non-blue water between themselves and LD - "we are the progressive, non-Tory party and we will never get into bed with a party that sides with fascists in Europe" - strong rhetoric but not untrue and it will work. For the Conservatives a deal might be unpalatable to the grassroots but they would get it through - why? Because they know it would be just a short-term measure.

There are reports this morning that Clegg had a conversation on the phone with a less than helpful PM and the briefing from the LD that the Cons are much easier to deal with in personal terms. Well of course they are! Brown isn't very personable at the best of times, he isn't a big fan of the LDs at the best of times and guess what he isn't exactly having the best of times. Brown has most to lose from this process and the Tories NOT the LDs who have most to gain - thats why there being so nice.

It is in the DNA of every Conservative to win, win big and govern strong - thats why the grassroots are so unhappy and there are anti-Cameron rumblings. But don't be fooled Cameron is acting on his DNA - he is making moves to make sure they win big and govern strong ... soon. The LDs should beware the 'easy to deal with' exterior.

If the Tories get a deal whenever it falls apart and an election is called, be it days weeks or months, they will have acted in the national interest winning them votes. They will have swallowed their pride and proven they aren't nasty winning them votes. Turnout will drop winning them votes. LD voters as earlier mentioned will desert them and that will only help the Tories too.

Now all the other outcomes and possibilities are fascinating and there are benefits to deals with the Conservatives in terms of being taken seriously and not just hell bent on PR etc. but in the long term interests of the party the LDs can not afford to do it.

Like every party they are split - but it is the Orange Book LDs of David Laws and Vince Cable who are leading negotiations - Chris Huhne and the others responsible for it's rival publication Reinventing the State may well balk (publicly) at a deal with the Tories - that public balk would be damaging.

So don't be fooled PR is a bit of a smokescreen although important and divisive - this is about power and electoral ability - a deal with the Tories would guarantee that for them in the long-run and damage it for the Lib Dems immediately even with Cabinet posts.